201- Who Controls the Switch? Commercial Technology, Starlink, and the Future of Deterrence
41 min
What happens when a critical military capability depends on a commercial company that controls the switch? Hosts Jim and Curtis discuss what Ukraine’s experience with Starlink and Starshield reveals about the growing role of commercial technology in modern warfare. Using SpaceX and battlefield communications as a case study, Jim and Curtis explore the opportunities and risks that emerge when commercial capabilities become integral to national defense. They examine the distinction between Starlink and the government-focused Starshield system, questions surrounding access and authority during a crisis, and whether dependence on a single commercial provider can create strategic vulnerabilities outside the traditional military chain of command. The conversation also looks beyond space. What happens on a “day without space”? Curtis discusses the importance of fail-safe capabilities and resilient alternatives, including radio, fiber, GPS alternatives, emergency action messages, and high-altitude platforms. The episode ultimately raises a larger question for deterrence: Can a nation maintain credible deterrence if it does not fully control the technologies on which its military capabilities depend? Jim and Curtis also explore the idea of technology as a fifth instrument of national power, alongside diplomacy, information, military power, and economics. As commercial innovation becomes increasingly intertwined with national security, assured access, clear authorities, redundancy, and credible alternatives may be just as important as the technology itself. www.thinkdeterrence.com
