When Will Bitcoin Finally Recover?
12 min
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
About the show
The Bitcoin Layer is a premium markets research provider, covering bitcoin through a global macro lens | Research, Analysis, & Education Featuring Nik Bhatia, author of the #1 Amazon bestseller Layered Money and USC Marshall School of Business professor. Subscribe to our research publication and YouTube channel to learn about global macroeconomics, bitcoin, Lightning Network, the monetary and financial system, the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and geopolitics. Most importantly, develop a framework for understanding global markets—connect the dots between economic and financial concepts to see the bigger picture. Look no further for your bitcoin and macro education!
Newest episodes
Bitcoin Is Setting Up To Beat The Nasdaq
31 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, as bitcoin tests its 200 day moving average. Jamie explains why he believes bitcoin broke out of its bear market in August, why that turn came well before the low in global liquidity, and the levels he is watching below, including an air gap between $75,000 and $64,000. He walks through the margin debt signal that flashed before the tops in 2000, 2007, and 2021, why the degrossing in tech is one of the largest on record, and why correlations go to one if a risk off event hits. They close on bitcoin versus the Nasdaq. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Why Stocks Really Crashed Today
12 min
In this episode, Nik covers the worst single day of 2026 for stocks, with the Nasdaq down 6.5% and the S&P down 4.6%, and asks whether the midterm results caused it or whether something larger is going on. He shows the Nasdaq slicing through its 200 day moving average and a trend line stretching back to 2022, and why the S&P losing 7630 and its own four year line matters. Nik argues that credit cycles are mostly apolitical and that this has been building for weeks, points to the OpenAI raise getting cut and Anthropic’s IPO odds falling, and explains what a 55 basis point drop in treasury yields is telling him. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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The newest 50 of 320 episodes
When Will Bitcoin Finally Recover?
12 min
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Bitcoin Is Setting Up To Beat The Nasdaq
31 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, as bitcoin tests its 200 day moving average. Jamie explains why he believes bitcoin broke out of its bear market in August, why that turn came well before the low in global liquidity, and the levels he is watching below, including an air gap between $75,000 and $64,000. He walks through the margin debt signal that flashed before the tops in 2000, 2007, and 2021, why the degrossing in tech is one of the largest on record, and why correlations go to one if a risk off event hits. They close on bitcoin versus the Nasdaq. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Why Stocks Really Crashed Today
12 min
In this episode, Nik covers the worst single day of 2026 for stocks, with the Nasdaq down 6.5% and the S&P down 4.6%, and asks whether the midterm results caused it or whether something larger is going on. He shows the Nasdaq slicing through its 200 day moving average and a trend line stretching back to 2022, and why the S&P losing 7630 and its own four year line matters. Nik argues that credit cycles are mostly apolitical and that this has been building for weeks, points to the OpenAI raise getting cut and Anthropic’s IPO odds falling, and explains what a 55 basis point drop in treasury yields is telling him. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
The Fed Will Have To Print Bigger This Time
19 min
In this episode, Nik lays out three money market metrics he watches as a former repo and treasury bill trader, and why they suggest the Fed may be closer to another round of QE than anyone wants to admit. He starts with SOFR creeping back above IORB, a spread now at its widest since tax day, and the month end and year end dates he is watching next. He then covers why more than $7 trillion in T-bills has to be funded by a cash market that cannot grow to meet it, and why bank reserves at 9% of GDP sit near the levels that preceded the 2019 repo crisis. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Prediction Markets Are A Symptom Of Debasement
1 hr 9 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes Mark Goodwin, journalist at Unlimited Hangout and former editor in chief of Bitcoin Magazine, for a conversation on prediction markets and the Genius Act. Mark explains why prediction markets aren’t the trustless systems people assume, how the oracle problem means someone still has to decide the outcome, and why the assumption that markets always reveal truth breaks down when someone has reason to lose money on purpose. He and Nik also cover why the Genius Act creates structural demand for treasuries, how stablecoins extend dollar access across the global south, and Nik’s own realization while writing his stablecoins as statecraft paper. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Bitcoin Held Up Through A $6 Billion Hack
23 min
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin’s reaction to the Binance hack, in which $6.3 billion was taken from the exchange’s hot wallet. He explains why a 5% drawdown is far milder than he would have guessed for news of that size, why this is different from the FTX collapse, and how the hacker used DeFi collateral to move stablecoins before issuers could freeze them. Nik then turns to the levels he is watching below $82,700, why gold losing its trend line opens up $3,400, and why a bearish divergence in the Nasdaq suggests more downside. He closes on month end funding and why the calendar matters here. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Wall Street Has No Idea What the Fed Is Doing Anymore
14 min
In this episode, Nik covers the Fed’s decision to hold and the reaction that surprised him more than the decision itself: Bloomberg’s anchors in full meltdown over how Kevin Warsh is communicating. He walks through their three complaints, the dissents, Warsh declining to explain why the Fed didn’t hike, and the suggestion that Williams and Jefferson are really setting policy. Nik explains why he thinks the hold was justified given how much conditions tightened after September, and why Warsh believes higher rates will slow the AI buildout. He closes on bitcoin’s four price drivers and why a steepening yield curve could relieve some pressure. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
It’s Death Either Way For Japan
53 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes Peruvian Bull, also known as Roberto Rios, author of the Dollar Endgame, for a deep look at Japan. They trace the story from the 1980s bubble and the Plaza Accord through the lost decades, the move to zero rates, and the yield curve control era that made the yen the world’s funding currency. Roberto explains how the carry trade grew into something the Bank of Japan can no longer tame, why recent interventions cost $91 billion and included the US Treasury and Federal Reserve for the first time since 1998, and why Japan now has to choose between letting the currency fall or letting JGB yields rip. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
The Credit Cycle Is Turning On Stocks
10 min
In this episode, Nik covers three funding headlines that landed within days of each other: Anthropic filing for an IPO, SpaceX going to the bond market for $40 billion, and Meta raising $95 billion in equity. He explains why so much issuance at once signals the funding window is narrowing, why a turning credit cycle starves everything on the fringe, and why stock valuations and earnings growth are already rolling over. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
97% Of Bitcoin’s Price Is Explained By The Power Law | Santostasi & Perrenod
40 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Dr. Giovanni Santostasi and Dr. Stephen Perrenod of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, joining from Lugano, to explain the bitcoin power law. Giovanni walks through why bitcoin’s price plotted against time produces a straight line on a log log chart, and why an R squared of 0.97 means only 3% of the price history falls outside it. Stephen explains the two power laws underneath it, adoption growing as the cube of time, the same rate as the internet and as viruses, and value growing with the square of users. They also cover their peer reviewed paper and why the math suggests bitcoin is empirically a peer to peer network. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
The Most Important Thing About This Debt Crisis with Matt Dines
1 hr 10 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Dines to talk through where we are in the credit cycle and why he thinks we are in the late innings. Matt walks through the names he watches widening every day, from Oracle and CoreWeave to JetBlue bonds trading at 61 cents on the dollar, and explains why record high yield deals from SoftBank and Paramount Skydance mean companies are issuing with a gun to their head rather than by choice. He argues that a QE response would be the wrong prescription, because the disease is tight resource markets rather than a purely financial problem. Nik and Matt close on what a default wave would mean for bitcoin. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Bitcoin Wants To Run But Liquidity Won’t Let It
7 min
In this episode, Demian explains TBL’s analysis of why bitcoin is holding up even as liquidity hit its lowest point of the cycle. He covers how the TBL Liquidity Index works, what a red dot actually signals, and why bitcoin’s own supply and demand have shifted in its favor as the sellers ran out and more than 70% of supply moved into profit. He closes on the three things that would need to ease for liquidity to turn. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
The Math Behind $1 Million Bitcoin
15 min
In this episode, Nik explains the bitcoin power law and why he believes it points to a million dollar bitcoin in the early 2030s. He walks through bitcoin’s orders of magnitude, four years to go from $1,000 to $10,000 and eight years to reach $100,000, and why the next zero may take a similar stretch. Nik covers where the power law comes from, the exponent Giovanni Santostasi solved for, and why power laws show up in nature, from the education level of a city to how much an elephant eats. He also explains why bitcoin trading below the bottom band of its power law has historically been a good place to accumulate. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Nobody Has Ever Lost Money Holding Bitcoin Six Years
12 min
In this episode, Nik explains what he thinks is the easiest way to introduce bitcoin to new investors, which comes down to returns. He compares bitcoin against stocks, bonds, and gold across three, five, seven, and ten year windows, showing where bitcoin trails and where it separates, including the five year stretch where gold and stocks both beat it. Nik then walks through the HODL Cave, which plots returns by holding period and shows that nobody who has held bitcoin for six years has ever lost money, with median returns climbing above 100x at ten years. He closes on why he expects forward returns in the 30s rather than the 60s. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Bitcoin Just Lost $82,700
26 min
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin losing the $82,700 level he had been tracking, falling 3% for a second straight day. He explains why he is watching 71 to 74,000 as the next support, why a negative liquidity environment mutes bitcoin's returns, and why the dollar squeeze building through October is a main reason liquidity is reading negative. Nik also covers gold testing a trend line it has held since 2025, why the ten-year yield may finally be catching a bid after a strong auction, why the twos tens curve is the chart he watches most closely, and why French bond spreads are back at 2011 levels. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Bitcoin Has A 7x To Catch Gold
21 min
In this episode, Nik walks through TBL Pulse and the macro charts he watches every day, starting with why bitcoin is climbing while liquidity drains. He explains why the TBL liquidity index has fallen close to the midline that separates expansion from contraction, why rate of change matters more than the level, and why bitcoin performing well in a negative liquidity environment tells him it has entered an early stage of recovery after a deep capitulation. Nik also covers the move index and the dollar, the Thucydides trap and the US China breakup behind the global system rupture, why credit spreads explain the stock market, and why he is watching for a European central bank print. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About The Bond Crisis
14 min
In this episode, Nik asks how bitcoin is outperforming both gold and the dollar in the middle of a global bond crisis. He covers why rising yields, bond volatility, and a stronger dollar all point to tighter liquidity, then turns to the French German bond spread and why a move of this size has only happened twice in thirty years. Nik explains where he thinks the European Central Bank would have to step in, why falling oil could ironically rescue the French bond market, and why this crisis may be the opening the digital euro needed. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Europe Is About To Print
21 min
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the blowout in French government bond yields against German bunds and why he sees a sovereign debt crisis developing in France. He explains why a falling euro suggests Europe is defending its bond market rather than its currency, and why he is watching for trial balloons of a European money creation event from the ECB or the Bank for International Settlements. Nik then walks through the charts TBL members use most, the MOVE index, the dollar index, and the yield curve, and introduces the new crossover analysis combining TBL liquidity with Johan Bergman's state grid to gauge how much confidence a given signal deserves. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Bitcoin’s Volatility Is Dying (And That’s Bullish)
48 min
In this Global Macro Update, Nik walks through a chart pack of more than 100 charts, starting with the bitcoin gold ratio charging back above 20 while global bond markets remain in meltdown. He shows why bitcoin versus gold has tracked bitcoin versus the dollar for its entire life, why treasuries lost more than 27% of their value over five years, and why bitcoin's realized volatility keeps compressing as it gets absorbed into the financial system. Nik explains why that compression should pull institutional allocations higher over time, why the Fed began hiking this month into rising yields worldwide, and why he expects a massive money creation event out of Europe before the United States. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Central Banks Have Lost Control
20 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes back James Van Straten of CoinDesk for a conversation on the global bond meltdown and the fiscal crisis building in the United Kingdom. James explains why he thinks central banks have lost control, walking through the Bank of England's reversal on gilt sales and why moving that debt to the Treasury does not make it disappear. He covers why the UK housing market has gone no bid as short-term mortgages reset, and why the Bank of England will eventually have to hike to defend the pound. Nik and James also discuss bitcoin's rally and why AI may be the most deflationary force either has seen. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
The Bear Market Is Over
36 min
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin's move to $87,000 and why breaking $82,700, the post-bear-market high from May, means the bear market that defined 2026 is over. He zooms all the way into one-minute candles to show the short squeeze that took price up more than $1,500 in about 100 seconds, and explains why that resistance level should now act as support. Nik also covers why the four-year cycle theory keeps getting buried, how financialization has compressed bitcoin's volatility, and the breakout on the bitcoin versus gold ratio. He closes on Johan Bergman's state grid, where trend is turning up while valuation is still cheap. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Healthcare Is Eating 70% Of Federal Tax Revenue
45 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes Stu Lackey and Jon Gordon of SOUND HSA for a conversation on the fiscal side of American healthcare. Nik opens with the charts: almost $4 trillion of the just over $5 trillion the government collects in tax revenue now goes to Medicare, Social Security, and other health spending. Stu and Jon explain how the system got here, why the Medicare trust fund is projected to run out in 2032, and why commercial insurance pays far more than Medicare for identical care. They also cover the solutions they see emerging, from direct primary care and cash pricing to holding bitcoin in a health savings account. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
What Happens If The Fed Hikes Tomorrow
18 min
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the global bond meltdown and what happens to Liquidity if the Fed hikes rates. He starts with bitcoin losing the trend line he had been tracking and slipping from $80,000 back to $76,000, then turns to crude oil above $106 a barrel and why the energy shock, including declining refinery capacity and diesel prices, is repricing inflation expectations worldwide. Nik explains why yields are spiking in the United Kingdom, France, and Japan, why he thinks a crisis response is more likely to come from Europe than the United States, and why a strengthening dollar challenges Europe in what he calls the global capital war. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
The Bond Meltdown Ends In A Global Money Print
1 hr 2 min
In this Global Macro Update, Nik explains why he believes the current global bond meltdown and liquidity contraction will end in a massive global money print. He walks through the global balance sheet, $600 trillion in real assets, $600 trillion in financialized assets, and $600 trillion of banking balance sheet, set against $350 trillion of debt and only $120 trillion of global GDP, and why that math makes repayment in today's dollars impossible. Nik covers why he expects the print in the United States to come from commercial bank lending rather than Fed QE, why the ECB and the Bank of England will have to print at the policy level, and what all of it means for bitcoin. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
The Most Important Inflation Report Of The Year
31 min
In this episode, Nik explains why he thinks this week's inflation data is the most important economic release of the year, with PPI and CPI landing days before the Fed's September 16 decision. He covers why treasury bills lead the Fed and have been pricing hikes since May, how Kevin Warsh ending forward guidance leaves the market guessing into every meeting, and why core CPI running at 0.2% a month makes an immediate hike unlikely while a 0.4% print would change everything. Nik also lays out why he believes the Fed will hold, what a hiking cycle would do to liquidity, and the three sources he recommends for understanding the global balance sheet. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
One Level Decides Bitcoin’s Bull Market
27 min
In this episode, Nik covers the strong jobs report and whether it is enough to push the Fed toward a rate hike. He explains why the two-year yield near 4.38% shows the market pricing in hikes more aggressively than at any point since the election, and why he thinks the Treasury and the Fed will instead find a way to force front-end rates lower, given an interest burden approaching a quarter of tax revenue. Nik also covers the 4.81% level on the ten-year, why a flattening yield curve signals demand for safe assets rather than a debt spiral, why Europe worries him more than the United States, and the level bitcoin has to close above. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Something Just Broke the Bond Market
31 min
In this episode, Nik covers the chaos in global government bond markets, with yields rising from the United States to Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. He explains what actually drives bond yields, why inflation is structurally higher in 2026 than in the last fifteen years, and why Kevin Warsh told G20 finance leaders that the global savings glut is reversing into an investment surge. Nik walks through how the AI buildout is pulling capital out of treasuries, why NVIDIA chips are becoming bond collateral, and which countries actually have to worry. He closes with a tour of TBL Pulse and why Johan Bergman's state grid shows bitcoin leaving the capitulation zone. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Bitcoin Just Failed Three Times
18 min
In this video, Nik covers the market reaction to Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, starting with the two-year yield pushing back toward its highs near 4.35% and what that says about the market pricing in rate hikes. He explains why the yield curve flattening from 50 to 37 basis points on the week is the move he finds most important, how a flattening curve prices growth out of the economy, and why Michael Howell's read frames it as a premium for safe assets. Nik also revisits the recession call TBL got wrong in 2022, and covers bitcoin's three failed attempts at $81,000 this week. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
You've Been Drinking Fiat Wine (And You Feel It) with Ben Justman
1 hr 2 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes Ben Justman, founder of Peony Lane Wine in Paonia, Colorado, the highest wine region in North America. Ben explains how he learned winemaking on his father's farm, why high elevation and dry farming shape his Pinot Noir, and why the 73 ingredients American winemakers can add without putting them on a label led Nik to call it fiat wine. Ben shares that 30 to 50% of his customers pay in bitcoin. Nik covers why the Treasury buybacks are not material, why Bessent has said the United States needs to move away from reserve currency status, and why he now calls him the Secretary of Financial War. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Global Macro Update: The Real Reason Bitcoin Just Ripped
23 min
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the financial war he sees playing out across treasuries and currencies, and why bitcoin popped above $67,000 on the back of it. He walks through the trend lines he is watching, and why the zone between $70,000 and $82,000 is the work bitcoin has to do before a technical bull market emerges. Nik explains why he calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent the Secretary of Volatility, where he thinks Bessent's lines in the sand sit on the dollar and the ten-year yield, and how the new buyback program functions as a form of yield curve control. He also covers why rates are rising naturally in an AI boom. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Bitcoin Just Went Vertical (Is The Bear Over?)
22 min
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin's 22% week and a run that took price to just shy of $80,000. He walks through the multi-year trend line connecting the FTX lows to the start of the ETF bull market, why bitcoin generates most of its returns in short concentrated bursts, and the bullish divergence that showed up before this move. Nik explains why he thinks the real driver was not the Treasury buyback but the yen intervention and the developing US-Japan monetary alliance, and why Kevin Warsh lowering front-end rates is the only lever left. He closes on gold's run to $5,500 and the rising correlation between bitcoin and gold. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Russia Is Now Legalizing Bitcoin for Trade with Joe Consorti
34 min
In this episode, Demian welcomes back Joe Consorti for a conversation on the Clarity Act and what it means for bitcoin. Joe explains the bill's three buckets, how it would separate commodities from securities and put bitcoin under the CFTC, and why he sees that as a win for investor protections rather than price. He covers why the bill has stalled in the Senate over ethics concerns, why he thinks that fight is now ideological, and why the stablecoin rails it would create make it bullish long term. Joe also covers Russia legalizing bitcoin for cross-border settlement, the jobs revisions that boxed in the Fed, and why he thinks bitcoin's low is likely in. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Self Custody Is Not Dead with Stacie Waleyko
23 min
In this episode, Demian welcomes back Stacie Waleyko, a bitcoin developer with the Bitcoin Dev Project, on the Coldcard entropy vulnerability and the ongoing theft of funds. Stacie explains how hardware wallets are supposed to source randomness, why affected devices fell back to a weaker software path, and why anyone with funds from a post-2021 Coldcard should move them now. She covers the suspicion that attackers used an open weight model to grind through the reduced key space, how a licensing switch removed the Trezor library that had worked, and why she now points people toward multi-vendor multisig. They also get into covenants and why she argues self custody is not dead. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Why Jack Mallers Walked Away From Twenty One
39 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes Jack Mallers, founder and CEO of Strike, for a conversation on his exit from Twenty One. Jack describes the guilt and humility of stepping away from a company whose vision he says did not work, and where Strike sits between an operating company like Coinbase and a conviction vehicle like Strategy. He shares his reaction to the Coldcard vulnerability, which he calls a horror because the victims did everything right, and why he still does not think self-custody is dead. Jack also covers the red team of AI agents now testing Strike's code, and why he calls America's AI strategy shameful next to China's open-source push. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Tracing the Stolen Coldcard Bitcoin w/ Galaxy's Alex Thorn
43 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research on the Coldcard key generation vulnerability and the theft that followed. Alex explains how a March 17, 2021 firmware change left the devices silently defaulting to a much weaker random number generator, a bug that went unfound for five years, and why the victims are self-custody holders who never leaked a key or made a mistake. He walks through Galaxy's on-chain tracing across three confirmed waves totaling roughly 1,350 bitcoin, or about $88 million, why the stolen coins are sitting inert, how cheap compute and open source AI models made the exploit trivial, and what Coldcard owners should consider doing now. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Coldcard Wallet Hack: What Happened and What to Do Now
25 min
In this episode, Nik and TBL's Demian Schatt cover a breaking security situation: a seed-generation vulnerability in Coldcard hardware wallets that has exposed some bitcoiners to theft, with reports of wallets being swept over the last twenty-four hours. Nik, speaking as a researcher rather than a cryptographer, explains how bitcoin seed phrases are generated, why the entropy behind a seed is what keeps it safe, and how Coldcard's default seed generation left certain users vulnerable while those who added dice-roll entropy or a passphrase are better protected. He explains why bitcoin ETF holders are not affected and why he has long favored diversified storage. The video is a call to action: check your wallet and how your seed was generated. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Kevin Warsh Just Blew Up How the Fed Works
33 min
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers today's FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh's press conference, where the new Fed chair reaffirmed the 2% inflation target as a firm goal and made clear he is steering the Fed away from forward guidance. Nik explains why Warsh took credit for the recent rise in Treasury yields, calling it healthy price discovery, and why Warsh now says the Fed will look to the Treasury market for signal rather than telling markets what it will do. He also covers the yield curve steepening on the day, the Nasdaq correction and Korea's stock market crash, and why he thinks Treasury yields have left their four-year anchor for good. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
The Great Unwinding Wall Street Isn’t Pricing In with Matt Dines
1 hr 10 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Dines to lay out his thesis that the global order built after World War Two is being reset. Matt walks through the signals he is watching: the Kuwaiti pipeline deal with Blackstone, KKR, and Brookfield that reroutes energy toward Europe, the US-China rare earths truce and its expiring clock, and the chokepoints from Hormuz to the Red Sea. He connects rising real yields, a flattening curve, and dollar strength to that same reconfiguration, then turns to the Paramount and Warner Brothers fight over Oracle bonds and why he believes the November elections will resolve much of it. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
The $45,000 Bitcoin Everyone Fears Is Getting Less Likely
51 min
In this episode, Nik walks through the latest bitcoin research from Johan Bergman, head of bitcoin research at The Bitcoin Layer, using the charts inside TBL Pulse. He explains Johan's state grid, which plots bitcoin on valuation and trend, and why the framework currently places bitcoin in disbelief territory, a zone where, together with capitulation, bitcoin has spent roughly 40% of its life. Nik covers why bulls bracing for $45,000 are facing data that makes it less likely, and why the 200-day moving average near $73,000 stands as the final boss of the downtrend. He closes on why not retesting the realized price this cycle would signal a maturing bitcoin market. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Global Macro Update: The Dollar Shortage Pushing Asia Towards Crisis
1 hr 5 min
In this Global Macro Update, Nik returns from teaching his summer bitcoin and AI course at USC to a market waking up after the World Cup lull. He makes the case for a global dollar shortage behind the dollar's continued strength, with stress surfacing across Asia: India's push to pull in overseas dollars, a sharp correction in Korea's KOSPI, and the Japanese yen at its weakest level since 1990. He then turns to the pressure building in hyperscaler and AI corporate bonds, Apple overtaking Nvidia as the world's largest company, and SpaceX slipping below its IPO valuation. Cooling CPI and PPI, treasury yields, gold, and where bitcoin sits in deep-value territory round out the update. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Michael Saylor Sold the Bitcoin Bottom
39 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten to discuss why he believes bitcoin's bear market may be nearing its end. James walks through ETF flows that have held firm despite months of outflows, the rotation of capital out of AI and semiconductor names like NVIDIA, and where that money could head next. The conversation turns to Michael Saylor's decision to sell bitcoin near the lows, the role hedge funds played in pressuring Strategy through STRC, and on-chain data showing roughly 330,000 bitcoin accumulated between the high fifties and low sixties since February. James and Nik also examine this cycle's unusually shallow 54% drawdown and the case for a bottom ahead of October. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
This is the Most Bitcoin I Have Ever Bought
19 min
In this global macro update, Nik asks whether bitcoin has finally bottomed after tagging 58k and reclaiming 60,000. He walks through the bullish divergences forming on bitcoin's daily and weekly charts, why a grinding-higher dollar has been weighing on liquidity and bitcoin all year, and why he now sees Asia, particularly yen and Korean won weakness, as the most likely spot for trouble. Nik also covers new Fed chair Kevin Warsh and his read that Warsh is playing junior to Scott Bessent on taming volatility, the state of Michael Saylor's STRC dividend and MSTR, and what TBL liquidity is signaling now The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
I Built a $1 Million System in 11 Days With No Coding with Peter McCormack
43 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes Peter McCormack, host of the Peter McCormack Show, for a conversation on how he is using AI in his own business. Peter, who has no coding background, walks through the full podcast-management system he built with Claude in 11 days, work he says would once have taken a 14-person team over a year and cost around a million pounds. He covers how he got started, how he learned to prompt, and why he now thinks of himself as a software engineer. Peter and Nik also discuss why this is the printing-press moment for software, how AI threatens aggregators like hotels.com, and why he believes there is a short window to stake your claim in this new world. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Inside SpaceX's $60 Billion Bet on Cursor with Charlie Hu
48 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes Charlie Hu, founder of Coco AI and a bitcoiner since 2012, for a wide-ranging conversation on where AI is heading. Charlie shares takeaways from the Super AI conference in Singapore, walks through SpaceX's $60 billion acquisition of Cursor and what it signals about AI capital and exits, and gives his read on the US government's suspension of Anthropic's Fable and Mythos models. He then lays out his core thesis: that AI is ultimately a process of converting energy into intelligence, which reframes data centers, the US-China race, and even SpaceX's valuation as an energy story. Drawing on his background as a bitcoiner and former Web3 builder, Charlie explains why he sees this as the most important paradigm shift of our era. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
What Bitcoin Twitter Is Signaling About the Market Bottom w/ Michael Sullivan
31 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes Michael Sullivan, a bitcoin researcher who analyzes market sentiment through language. Michael explains how he runs natural language models across thousands of tweets, cohorting bitcoiners into newer retail accounts versus longer-term holders, to measure moods like anger, conviction, optimism, and apathy over time. He covers why bitcoin is in one of the most prolonged anger regimes on record, why Michael Saylor has become the main target of that disapproval, and how the current mix of low engagement, fading excitement, and apathy resembles the conditions you tend to see near a market bottom. Nik and Michael also discuss the AI trade pulling mindshare from bitcoin. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
I Woke Up Homeless With $75 When the Banks Took Everything | with Tony Yazbek
34 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes Tony Yazbek, co-founder of The Bitcoin Way, for a conversation on why owning bitcoin yourself is the whole point. Tony argues that bitcoin is money rather than an investment, and that anything wrapped in legacy finance, from ETFs to exchange balances, is not the same as holding it directly. He recounts surviving Lebanon's 2019 banking collapse, when he woke up homeless with about $75 after the banks confiscated everyone's savings, and how it shaped his conviction. Tony and Nik also dig into what self-sovereignty does for people, how to think about hardware and air-gapped storage, the volatility myth, and jurisdictional sovereignty, with Tony drawing on 30 years in cybersecurity throughout. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
The Iran War and the Fight for Energy Dominance with Tanvi Ratna
56 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Tanvi Ratna, geoeconomic strategist and Fox News columnist, for a conversation on why the Iran conflict is far bigger than the Middle East. Tanvi lays out her thesis that Iran is the node in a global re-architecture of the world order, and walks through how the war is realigning Europe, reshaping NATO as European commanders take over operational theaters, and squeezing Russia out of Latin America, the Middle East, and its energy markets. She explains the Saudi-Israel question still blocking a regional deal, the corridor wars around Hormuz and the Balkans, and how US LNG and new energy infrastructure are redrawing the map of global energy dominance. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
SpaceX Goes Public Tomorrow: Inside the $45 Billion Data Center with John Tinsman
44 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes John Tinsman, founder and portfolio manager at AOT Invest, for a conversation on why the AI buildout looks like a revolution rather than a bubble. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
AI Is Breaking the Power Grid, and Bitcoin Is the Fix
37 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Daniel Batten, bitcoin researcher and longtime voice on bitcoin's role in energy, for a conversation on the collision between AI, the power grid, and bitcoin mining. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
The Bitcoin Power Law Points to $300,000 w/ Dr. Stephen Perrenod
53 min
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Dr. Stephen Perrenod, astrophysicist and member of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, for a conversation on the mathematics behind bitcoin's price. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
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