Unexpected Points takes a look at the NFL through a uniquely analytical lens and challenges our assumptions about the game. Each week, data scientist Kevin Cole discusses the topical and macro issues affecting football. www.unexpectedpoints.com
1 hr 22 min
You can watch the pod live on YouTube on Monday mornings This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
28 min
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com
1 hr 7 min
You can watch the pod live on YouTube on Monday mornings This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
The newest 50 of 311 episodes
1 hr 22 min
You can watch the pod live on YouTube on Monday mornings This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
28 min
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com
1 hr 7 min
You can watch the pod live on YouTube on Monday mornings This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
37 min
You can also watch livestreams on YouTube. I may paywall the Power Rankings portion of the pod in the future. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 28 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 4 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
49 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
57 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
38 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 5 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 3 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 6 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 2 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 18 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
56 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 11 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 8 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 10 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 5 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 3 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
26 min
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com Follow Cody Alexander on Twitter. Subscribe to Cody’s substack: MatchQuarters
1 hr 5 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 14 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 1 min
Find all of Josh’s work and Buy Low Model at Air Yards This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
26 min
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com
1 hr 5 min
Find Josh’s Buy Low model on his substack This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
26 min
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com You can watch the entire episode for free on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.
1 hr 16 min
See the Week 1 NFL quarterback rankings based on Bayesian updating and adjusted EPA efficiency. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
26 min
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com Watch the whole podcast on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel.
36 min
The latest Deshaun Watson restructure gives us an opportunity to talk about the emerging financial alchemy teams are employing, especially with quarterback contracts. I talk through how the Watson deal and general restructures allow teams to roster slightly better teams overall, due to the compounding rise of cap cost and shifting burdens into the future. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
26 min
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com Find the full pod for free on the Unexpected Points YouTube channel. Read Mike’s QB Tiers article and follow him on twitter.
1 hr 10 min
Josh Hermsmeyer joins the pod for the weekly livestream to talk: * If Drake Maye should start, and generally what we learn from the preseason * How the Cowboys played the last few drafts so poorly at WR and lost all leverage with CeeDee Lamb * A bet on the kick-return rate for the 2024: Herms takes under 40%, Kevin takes the over * Strong analysis from the NFL’s Michael Lopez and Tom Bliss on the minimal benefit of bye weeks during the regular season This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
40 min
Kevin digs into the advanced stats, worries and hopes for * The Steelers QB “battle” between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields * All the top QB picks in 2024 * Is Caleb Williams playing as well as his social media highlights? * Jayden Daniels adjusted to a very different Kliff Kingsbury scheme * Drake Maye showing a lot of promise with big throws * Bo Nix continuing to lead the most efficiency offense of the preseason This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
26 min
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com Projections guru Mike Leone of Establish the Run joins the pod to talk through * The JJ McCarthy injury, what it means for his future and the more immediate implications for his teammates * We also discuss Mike's process forming seasonal and weekly projections * What are the most common mistakes making mental projections * How often he uses intuition or his gut to …
1 hr 7 min
Kevin discusses the (little) meaningful information from Week 1 of the NFL preseason Plus, he explain how to best decide on Week 1 starters with competing veterans of less caliber, or when a top-12 rookie is in the mix. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 1 min
Kevin and Josh talk the potential trade of Brandon Aiyuk: * Should the 49ers deal him? * Which team is in best position to get him? * Quantifying his value for contending and rebuilding teams? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 41 min
Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) of Stealing Signals joins me to talk: * How the tried-and-true strategies of yesteryear are working out in fantasy football now. * Whether we’ve become too fixated on the aggregate, stats-based analysis versus looking at talent * A bunch of ADPs for players that don’t make sense * Take questions on the YouTube LiveStream This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
26 min
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com What should we be thinking about the Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love deals? We discuss those contracts, plus the larger QB market and NFL team-building. Find more research from Josh on his substack, including the DFS player’s favorite “Buy Low” Model. You can watch the pod taping live and ask questions in the comments on YouTube every Tuesday at 1pm ET.
1 hr 42 min
Gambler and all-around insightful commentator ClevTA (@ClevTA) joins the pod to talk: * Process of building out offseason predictions * Which teams we like more/less than the market * Which teams project better/worse by our models than even we believe * Player futures: MVP, etc Check out ClevTA's website and FREE 2024 Preview This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 15 min
The first of (hopefully) many weekly livestreams with Josh Hermsmeyer joining Kevin to discuss the latest analytical topics affecting the NFL, plus all the usual football talk from a smarter perspective. Find more research from Josh on his substack, including the DFS player’s favorite “Buy Low” Model. You can watch the pod taping live and ask questions in the comments on YouTube every Tuesday at 1pm ET. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
46 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
51 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 14 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 14 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 7 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 2 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 5 min
* Why is scoring down so much in recent seasons? * What are we hearing that has actual signal * The history of success for quarterbacks by draft position, and what it means for the 2023 and 2024 classes. You can watch along here: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 29 min
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
1 hr 7 min
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe
30 min
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com Find more research by subscribing to https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/
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