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Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs

Views from Down Underer

A News Commentary , News and Politics podcast

#180 in News Commentary · 🇳🇿
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About the show

Analysis, news commentary, and opinions on the international relations of the Indo-Pacific and beyond as seen from the region by people from the region. An initiative of the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs (www.indopac.nz) in Christchurch, New Zealand, the podcast is hosted by Professor Alex Tan of the University of Canterbury (Christchurch, New Zealand) with panelists Associate Professor Nick Khoo of the University of Otago (Dunedin, New Zealand), Dr Orson Tan and Katie Mills of the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs.

Newest episodes

Ep. 104: NZ general election results and US midterm elections

1 hr 10 min

Momentous first week for us political observers.  US had its midterm elections that gave Democrats control of Congress and making President Trump a 'lame duck' president for the remaining two years of his administration.  New Zealand held its general election on November 7th. The two legacy parties - National and Labour - only managed to get less that 60 percent of the votes so it is still unclear who gets to form government.  

Ep. 103: Indonesia's haze/smog; French protests; Ukraine update

1 hr 0 min

Indonesia's forest burning is creating huge smog problems for its neighbors. What is happening and why it is a problem?  Serious riots and protests in France that is destabilizing French politics in Macron's last few months as president.  Ukraine is losing support from the White House.  What's happening there and what does it mean for the conduct of the Ukraine war.

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All episodes

Ep. 104: NZ general election results and US midterm elections

1 hr 10 min

Momentous first week for us political observers.  US had its midterm elections that gave Democrats control of Congress and making President Trump a 'lame duck' president for the remaining two years of his administration.  New Zealand held its general election on November 7th. The two legacy parties - National and Labour - only managed to get less that 60 percent of the votes so it is still unclear who gets to form government.  

Ep. 103: Indonesia's haze/smog; French protests; Ukraine update

1 hr 0 min

Indonesia's forest burning is creating huge smog problems for its neighbors. What is happening and why it is a problem?  Serious riots and protests in France that is destabilizing French politics in Macron's last few months as president.  Ukraine is losing support from the White House.  What's happening there and what does it mean for the conduct of the Ukraine war.

Ep. 101: AfD wins German state election, Trump offers $5k if Republicans win midterms, and US Treasury Bonds interest rate rises

1 hr 5 min

AfD- considered an extreme right German party- won Lander election in Saxony-Anhalt.  What are the implications of this historic state election victory?  Is dealignment happening in the German party system?  US President Trump is offering all Americans $5k if the Republicans win the midterm election.  This is the first time a clear monetary reward is offered to voters by a US president.  Is this vote-buying?  US Treasury Bond interest rates are rising despite Treasury's market intervention.  What is happening?  What are the implications?

Ep. 100: US-Canada trade war

1 hr 6 min

This is our 100th episode.  We discussed the US-Canada trade war.  What happened?  What next for Canada?  

Ep. 99: NZ pre-election coalition politics, NZ Foreign Minister's unparliamentary statements, FIFA's money-grabbing scheme

1 hr 13 min

Recent party support polling is affecting the pre-election coalition politicking.  Is the stale NZ party system ready for rejuvenation with the rise of the Opportunity Party?  NZ Foreign Minister's unkindly remarks in a parliamentary debate made headlines in Asian media of the wrong kind.  Why is it happening at this time of NZ politics.  FIFA announced a money-grabbing proposal of partially privatising its signature events -- World Cup and Club World Cup.  It fell flat on its face before taking off.  What happened?

Ep 97: Social cohesion, US-China, Venice Biennale

1 hr 15 min

NZ social cohesion and views on migration is a topic of a recent survey.  State of US-China relations after Xi-Trump summit. Arts and politics meet in Venice Biennale.  NZ MPs sanctioned by China for visiting Taiwan.

Ep. 96: RNZAF P-8 in East China Sea, leaked email of NZ PM, arts and politics

1 hr 4 min

RNZAF plane flies to East China Sea to participate in an international mission but the PRC Foreign Affairs Ministry criticised NZ for this flight.  There is drama around the leaked emails regarding the position of the NZ Prime Minister about the Iran conflict.  The email was supposed to be leaked by the Foreign Minister and NZ news outlets have been giving coverage about this 'scandal.'  Banksy placed a recent sculpture in central London that many art observers say is a critique of 'blind nationalism.' What is this art all about?  In the Auckland area, a sculpture of a Korean comfort woman was not allowed by a local council to be displayed at a Korean garden part of a public park stating that the sculpture is too political. 

Ep. 95: Hungarian election results and NZ's National Party woes

1 hr 7 min

Hungarian election resulted in the end of PM Orban's 16-year reign.  What lessons does it offer?  Is it a glimmer of hope to reverse democratic backsliding?  New Zealand's National Party is dropping in public opinion polls leading to the general election this November.  There is unrest within the party and there are rumours about party leadership change.

Ep. 94: US-Israel-Iran conflict (week 5 and counting); NZ-Cook Island security pact; Survey shows young Aussies dissatisfied with democracy

1 hr 18 min

US-Israeli conflict with Iran is on its fifth week (with no end in sight) and with the global economy held hostage due to the 'closure' of the Strait of Hormuz, US president Trump said that keeping the Strait open is not the US's problem.  In a reverse 'Pottery Barn rule' -- US breaks it but does not want to own it.  Even better it is what we call the 'Pampers rule' -- I make a mess, you clean up for me.  NZ-Cook Island signed a pact a year after Cook Island surprised NZ with a partnership with China.  Is this NZ exercising and imposing its power on its smaller partner?  Lastly, young Aussies are said to be dismayed with democracy.  Is this a blip or a trend?

Ep. 93: Continuing US-Israel conflict with Iran, closing of Strait of Hormuz

1 hr 6 min

The US-Israeli conflict with Iran has intensified.  Iran has hit back at Gulf states and Israel.  Iran has also closed the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of petroleum is transported.  Stock markets have been volatile, oil prices have increased substantially, fertilizer prices have shot up.  Is there an off-ramp?  Will the global economy be resilient enough to sustain this market volatility?

Ep. 92: Carney in Australia, Iran conflict, NZ PM’s polling numbers

1 hr 0 min

Canadian PM Mark Carney visited Australia as part of his Indo-Pacific middle powers tour. Iran conflict enters its second week, what is the end game or is there even one? NZ PM is having a tough week trying to clarify NZ’s position on the US-Israel attack on Iran. His poll numbers are not good going into the year end general elections.

Ep. 91: Iran attacked by US and Israel

1 hr 7 min

US and Israel attacked Iran that killed Iran's top leadership.  Iran has responded by expanding the conflict to neighboring states.  The Strait of Hormuz is now closed and air travel is impacted.  Why is this happening at this time?  What are the implications?

Ep. 90: Munich Security Conference, China as a green superpower, Ex-South Korean President given life sentence

1 hr 8 min

Recent Munich Security Conference followed up on the 'rupture' speech by Canadian PM Carney, US State Secretary delivered a similar message to last year's US VP Vance's speech but seem to be sugar-coated.  Is Europe ready to take defense in its own hands?  China's has been investing heavily on renewable energy while the US is now lagging behind.  What does this mean for China's green future? Finally, ex-South Korean president was sentenced to life sentence for insurrection and treason for his part in the 3 December 2024 declaration of martial law.  What does it mean for South Korean domestic politics?

Ep. 89: NZ-India FTA, Japan's LDP wins, AI and jobs

1 hr 6 min

Will the NZ-India FTA see the light of day? PM Takaichi leads Japan's LDP to a big electoral victory.  Singapore's Deputy PM raised concern about AI and its impact on jobs and the future economy.    

Ep. 88: Canadian PM Carney's 2026 World Economic Forum speech

1 hr 7 min

Canadian PM Mark Carney delivered a hard hitting speech declaring the 'rules-based international order' as ruptured and calling for middle powers of the world to unite.  While many observers and non-western states have known (and complained) for a long time, this the first time that a Western leader finally yelled out: "The emperor has no clothes."

Ep. 86: China-Japan spat, NZ MPs sent warning letter by PRC envoy, MAGA's MTG resigning from US Congress

1 hr 1 min

Tensions brewing between China and Japan due to PRC's response to Japanese PM's comments about 'survival-threatening situation' pertaining to conflict in the Taiwan Strait.  What's happening here? Over-reaction? Playing to domestic constituencies? Nationalism at play? Chinese envoy to NZ wrote a warning letter to NZ MPs that attended Taiwan's national day reception in Wellington.  Wolf-warrior at play again? Principal-agent issues?  Misunderstanding of how Westminster system works?  Fallout of the US government shutdown and Epstein files is the resignation announcement of big MAGA supporter Marjorie Taylor-Greene.

Ep. 84: ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur and APEC meeting in Seoul

1 hr 5 min

ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur saw the formal admission of Timor Leste as the newest ASEAN member, the transfer of chair-ship to the Philippines and US President Trump attended the summit.  Seoul hosted the APEC meeting but the Trump-XI meeting stole the show as the leaders of the two largest economies met face to face.

Ep. 83: Trading democracy off for desirable outcomes?

1 hr 5 min

We discuss a forthcoming research article to be published at the Comparative Political Studies by Jonathan Chu and colleagues on whether people are willing to trade-off democracy for desirable outcomes.  The paper using experiments show that while free and fair elections are a desired, people in the six countries they studied (including US, Japan, Italy) are willing to trade it off to avoid living in dangerous societies. Readings: Jonathan A. Chu, Scott Williamson, Eddy S.F. Yeung (forthcoming). "Are People Willing to to Trade Away Democracy for Desirable Outcomes? Experimental Evidence from Six Countries." Comparative Political Studies

Ep 82: Australia-PNG security pact and Australia-Vanuatu security and development pact

1 hr 7 min

Recent news about Australia's pacts with Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu has highlighted the important of geopolitical competition in the South Pacific.  However, despite the announcement of these pacts, they were not officially signed in time from the Pacific Island Forum.  What are these pacts? Are there outstanding issues that preventing the pacts from being signed?  We are joined by Henrietta McNeill-Stowers, Michael Kabuni, and Anna Naupa of the Australian National University to discuss these news.

Ep 78: Geoeconomics and USTR Greer's New York Times guest essay

56 min

We discuss a paper on the political economy of geoeconomic power and discuss what theory means when applied to real world empirics.  In an New York Times guest essay authored by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer titled "Why We Remade the Global Order," Greer argues that the agreement between the EU and the US made at Turnberry resort is a new world order much like Bretton Woods set the postwar world order.  Is the comparison valid?  We discuss the essay and assess its claims.

Ep. 77: Thailand-Cambodia border skirmishes, Japan's LDP loses upper house majority, Taiwan's recall election

50 min

The Thai-Cambodia border skirmish has now escalated with both sides firing artillery across their borders.  Why the escalation now?  Japan's LDP loses its upper house majority and what does it mean for PM Ishiba's tenure as LDP party leader.  Taiwan has a recall election in a bid to unseat KMT legislators and allow the DPP to regain legislative majority that the ruling party lost in the January 2024 general election.  So what is the result and what are the implications of this recall election on party politics in Taiwan?

Ep. 76: Tariff letters, Australian FM speech in Kuala Lumpur, and other interesting news

1 hr 7 min

White House has sent out tariff letters to numerous countries but the the import taxes do not take effect till August 1st.  FM Penny Wong gave a speech in the ASEAN meeting about managing differences between allies.  Other interesting news such as the confirmation grilling of the US ambassador-designate to Singapore, the advanced RAF fighter jet stuck in India, and how Myanmar military junta received the US tariff letters.

Ep. 75: China-EU meeting, China pressuring to not show a South China Sea documentary, Thailand cabinet reshuffle and continuing political drama

1 hr 7 min

China's FM had a meeting with EU counterpart to discuss outstanding issues on bilateral relations.  A Philippine documentary "Food Delivery" on the South China Sea has received attention such that there are active lobbying by Chinese diplomats to not show the documentary.  There is still continuing fallout from the leaked call of the Thai PM with former Cambodian PM.  Thai PM is suspended pending investigation while calls for her resignation gets louder.

Ep. 74: US bombs Iran and Thailand PM pressured to resign over leaked phone call

58 min

US bombed Iran's nuclear facility about a week after Israel attacked Iran.  Why did the US attack now?  Will their be a fallout from this decision?  Is there a risk of a widening regional conflict?  Thailand's border conflict with Cambodia has a new twist.  A private phone conversation between the Thai PM and Cambodia's ex-strongman leader Hun Sen was leaked and led to calls for resignation of the PM. 

Ep. 73: Israel-Iran conflict, NZ PM's upcoming Beijing visit, Pentagon reviews AUKUS, US Army day parade

1 hr 7 min

Israel attacked Iran to decapitate its nuclear program and Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks.  Will this turn into a regional war? NZ PM will visit Beijing, with lots going on domestically and internationally what are some of their likely talking points?  Pentagon has decided to review the AUKUS arrangements catching Australia by surprise and also ahead of an upcoming visit by the Australian PM to the US. US Army celebrated its 250th anniversary with a military parade which are rare in the US.

Ep. 72: South Korean election, California vs US federal government spat, Thailand-Cambodia border dispute

1 hr 0 min

South Korean liberal politician Lee Jae-myung won the presidency.  With Korean society so polarised is this a 'poisoned chalice.'  Trump administration in a spat with California threatened to cut federal funding, in turn California governor Gavin Newsom threatened to not turn over California's federal taxes.  What is this spat all about?  Thailand and Cambodia are having a dispute over part of its shared border.  The militaries of both countries have been mobilised. What does this mean for the concept of ASEAN as a security community?

Ep. 71: Macron and Hegseth speeches at the 2025 Shangrila Dialogue

1 hr 0 min

Shangrila Dialogue was held in Singapore last week.  French president Macron spoke of the importance of Europe to engage Asia.  US defense secretary Hegseth warns about hedging and implores regional states to spend at least 5% on their defense.  Interestingly, China did not send their defense minister instead an academic delegation from their defense university.

Ep. 70: US Navy ship visit NZ, Philippine midterm elections, US reducing forces in Korea

1 hr 2 min

US naval ship visits New Zealand after PLA Navy ships showed up in the Tasman Sea several months ago.  With NZ planning to increase defense spending does this mean a closer defense relationship between the two countries since the breakup of ANZUS in the late 1980s?  Philippine midterm elections shows the strength of political dynasties in the Philippines and the seeming weakness of Philippine political institutions.  Is this a sign of poor institutional design?  Wall Street Journal reports that US is planning to reduce the number of soldiers based in South Korea and Singapore warns foreign embassies not to interfere in domestic affairs.

Ep. 69: IR scholar Joe Nye, Pope Leo XIV, Asia's dollar demand, US orders intelligence gathering of Greenland

1 hr 3 min

Prominent international relations scholar, Joseph Nye, passes away.  We chat about his contribution to the study of international relations.  Catholic Church has a new pope and the first born in the US.  Asia's demand for US dollar is waning, what does it mean and what are likely implications?  US is upping intelligence gathering on Greenland and Danish government protests this action.

Ep. 67: NZ FM's East-West Center speech, Trump and Zelensky meets in Vatican, Foreign interference warnings in Singapore's general election campaign period

49 min

NZ FM gave a speech at the East-West Center in Honolulu titled "Enduring Pacific Partnerships" that talks about the importance of NZ relations with US especially in the context of Pacific partnerships.  Trump and Zelensky met just before the funeral mass of Pope Francis where Trump noted that Russia may not be serious about ending the war with Ukraine.  Lastly, the caution and warning about foreign influence in the upcoming Singapore general elections.

Ep. 66: About the 2025 State of Southeast Asia Survey by ISEAS Singapore

1 hr 0 min

The new State of Southeast Asia Survey is out and provides a snapshot of public opinions from SEA about all things that concern the region.  Here is a link to the survey: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/centres/asean-studies-centre/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2025-survey-report/  

Ep. 65: Liberation day to liquidation day: Tariffs, market crash, and global economy

59 min

Trump's liberation day announcement and the 'reciprocal' tariffs led to stock market crash and high market volatility.  With global stock markets shedding trillions of dollars from its value and the eventual hit on US Treasury bonds as investors dump the bonds and yields on the bonds rise, Trump put a temporary 90-day halt on the tariffs.  President Trump and the US blinked as the market taught it a harsh lesson in international economics.  So what happened?  In this discussion, we chat about the market dynamics and political economy of 'liberation to liquidation' week.

Ep. 64: South Korean president removed from office, White House launched massive tariffs

1 hr 1 min

South Korean constitutional court removes president Yoon for declaring an illegal martial law in early December 2024. New presidential election is set for June 3rd.  Trump administration launched the so called 'liberation day' by slapping 'reciprocal' tariffs on its own major trading partners.  Markets are reacting with the significant declines of major stock markets.

Ep. 63: Ex-Philippine president Duterte ICC arrest and RNZAF P-8 Poseidon

1 hr 8 min

Former Philippine president Duterte was arrested on an ICC warrant.  What is this about and what are the implications to Philippine politics?  The P-8 Poseidon is termed as a 'once in a generation' acquisition for the RNZAF but recent news report that the servicing of the planes cannot be done in New Zealand due to absence of technical capabilities. Why?  Lastly, interesting evolution of kit/shirt sponsors of English Premier League teams in the 30 years of the creation of the league.  

Ep. 61: German defense spending, India comments on postwar order, China complains about port deals

1 hr 2 min

Germany plans to spend big in defense spending as US commitment to Europe weakens, India says that benefits of postwar order is exaggerated signalling the end of the international rules-based order as we know it.  China is reported to be very critical of the recent port deals by Hutchison.  Voice of America is cutting staff and funding while Canada is reassessing whether to still buy the F35s or not.

Ep. 60: Canada as canary in the coal mine? Tariffs, trade war, and Ukraine

1 hr 1 min

US announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.  Canada considers this an aggressive action by the US that seeks to weaken Canada. The fallout of the Oval Office shakedown continues as US freezes support to Ukraine.  What is happening here? What is the implications to international politics?

Ep. 59: CDU tops German elections but AfD made gains; Rumble in the Oval Office

1 hr 3 min

The 2025 German Federal election results are out: governing SPD is third, CDU/CSU is tops, the far right AfD came in a strong second.  What is the new picture of vote distribution across Germany? What does it mean for coalition and future governance?  What does it mean for its foreign policy?  Ukraine's president Zelensky went to the Oval Office expecting to discuss and then sign the US-Ukraine mineral deal, instead he got a 'shakedown' by US President Trump and VP Vance all caught on live TV.  He was asked to leave the White House not even able to enjoy a meal.  What happened?  What are the implications and fall out of this very undiplomatic live TV show straight from the White House?  

Episode 58: US-Russia meeting in Saudi Arabia, PLA Navy nearby, Cook Islands update

1 hr 1 min

US and Russia met in Saudi Arabia to discuss ground rules for negotiations to end the Ukraine war although no Ukrainians and Europeans attended.  What does it mean?  What are the implications?  PLA Navy task force is spotted in international waters near Australia and NZ and disrupted commercial air traffic by having live fire exercises.  Why?  What is the point of Chinese navy presence?  And a quick update on the continuing saga of the Cook Island and China agreement.

Episode 57: Era of Stick Power in International Relations? Vance in Munich, NZ-Cook Island spat

59 min

Is this now an era of stick power in international relations? An era of my way or the highway?  US VP Vance spoke at the Munich Security Conference and lectured (or read the riot act) his European audience.  NZ and Cook Islands are having an uncomfortable moment in their relationship when Cook Islands signed an agreement with China without prior alert to NZ.

Episode 55: Trump's first week back as US president

57 min

US president Donald Trump has been busy since his inauguration one week ago.  We chat about his inauguration speech and other things in President Trump's eventful week one on the first week of his 2nd term as US president.

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